Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s Iran gamble has produced a crisis reshaping the global order

Donald Trump misjudged how quickly he could win this war. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA View image in fullscreen Donald Trump misjudged how quickly he could win this war. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s Iran gamble has produced a crisis reshaping the global order In today’s newsletter: ​A White House operating without expertise, strategy or restraint ​is stuck in a conflict with no easy way out, which is sending economic shockwaves far beyond its own borders Good morning. Within two hours of entering No 10 on Monday afternoon, Andy Burnham had his first call with Donald Trump . After chit-chatting about the football (both agreed England had an “excellent tournament”) and Manchester (our new prime minister invited the president to visit the city Trump once described as a “town”), they got on to far trickier territory: the strait of Hormuz. The US has attacked Iran for the eleventh consecutive night, hitting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites across the country. It came after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US air bases and neighbouring Gulf states, which have accused it of deliberately targeting desalination plants that are essential to life in the region. Each side now claims it is preventing the other from gaining control over the strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil was shipped before the war began. Vessels carrying crucial shipments of oil, gas and fertiliser remain at a standstill. “Operation Epic Fury” started with the aim of regime change . Since then, its objective has morphed into reopening the strait and undoing the damage caused by the US and Israel’s decision to start the war. The president drastically underestimated Iran’s capacity for enduring pain, and is now trying to bomb his way out of a conflict that he created. For today’s First Edition, I spoke to Vali Nasr , professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, about the war over the world’s most critical bottleneck. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Andy Burnham is under mounting pressure to explain how he will pay for his policy pledges as he implored his new cabinet to examine “all possible ways” to tackle the cost of living crisis. UK news | A man has appeared in court charged with the murder of the former MP and Reform UK spokesperson Ann Widdecombe. Joshua Kerry, 28, is accused of killing the former Conservative minister at her home in Haytor, Devon, by hitting her on the head with a hammer 21 times. Middle East | The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told the Senate the US-Israel war on Iran had cost $37.5bn so far , as he faced lawmakers furious over the conflict’s soaring price tag and the deaths last week of three American service members. Climate crisis | About 23 million people will be banned from using hosepipes by this weekend, as England and Wales moves closer to drought status . Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired Ukra