Australian home prices fall as experts predict slump could last a year and cut values by 10%

Capital city house price falls in May could be the start of a year-long decline, even in smaller cities where prices boomed, Cotality says. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP View image in fullscreen Capital city house price falls in May could be the start of a year-long decline, even in smaller cities where prices boomed, Cotality says. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP Australian home prices fall as experts predict slump could last a year and cut values by 10% Buyers abandon auctions and Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra median house prices end May lower than they were at the end of 2025 Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Home prices in Australia’s capital cities have begun to fall, with experts predicting the decline could last at least a year and wipe as much as 10% from values. The median capital city home price fell in May, the first decline since January 2025, as high interest rates and inflation stretched buyer budgets, Cotality reported on Monday. Auction success hit a new low for the year. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra median house prices ended May lower than they were at the end of 2025. Even homes at the cheaper end in those cities fell in value, losing the momentum maintained at the start of 2026 . Graph of capital city house prices The Reserve Bank since February has returned interest rates to their 2024 highs, putting the official cash rate at 4.35% and lowering the borrowing power of potential buyers. Nationally, prices were flat over May, with slow growth in the regions outweighing metropolitan declines. Prices rose in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Hobart and Darwin – but the rate of growth there has slowed. The number of homes listed for sale has picked up in most cities but the number of sales has slipped, Cotality reported. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email Auction success hit a new low for the year in the final week of May, with just 54.5% of homes sold after being listed for auction, according to Cotality’s preliminary national clearance data. The finalised rate of successful auction sales is typically even lower, suggesting auction clearance rates could be tracking to hit their lowest point since 2020’s lockdowns. Graph of auction clearance tates Cotality’s Tim Lawless said the capital cities’ price fall in May could be the start of a significant year-long decline, even in the smaller cities that had enjoyed price booms. Economists have predicted a slight fall in house prices in 2026 under the weight of interest rates, the federal budget’s tax reforms and declining household confidence. Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley have said values could slide 10%. Lawless said those predictions were reasonable, given prices had risen nationally about 35% in the last five years. “In the context of such a significant upswing over the past five years, a 10% drop doesn’t seem unreasonable,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll see the market turn around until we see interest rates coming down … probably [in the